Simon (15 Mar 03) Premiership Football...
Hills have Sunderland at 1/33 to be relegated - the 'Black Cats' are virtual certainties for the drop. It's the word 'virtual' that is important, because if Sunderland can get a result today in the six-pointer against Bolton then they still have a chance - albeit a slim one - of building some momentum, getting a few points and avoiding a spell in the Nationwide League.

Sunderland have a very poor home record and they also have a few injury worries. This is balanced by the fact that Bolton aren't exactly a force to be reckoned with away from home. The key element here though is the 'New Boss' factor. McCarthy's appointment will, without a doubt, give everyone at Sunderland a bit of a lift. The players will be keen to impress the new manager, and the fans' expectation levels will be raised. Add to that the fact that Sunderland aren't quite past the point of no return and this game looks like the one time this season when backing Sunderland might just be the smart thing to do. Best prices are 11/8 with several firms including TotalBet and UKBetting.

Simon (01 Mar 03) Premiership Football...
It's been a while since my last speculation on Premiership football, but this week I think it's time to put some money on the line once again.

My selection this week is West Ham (8/5 with UKBetting) to edge out Tottenham at Upton Park. A win can make a great deal of difference to a team, and the Hammer's win at West Brom might be just what they need to get going. At 8/5 for a home team they represent value.

Gozzer (15 Feb 03) World Cup Cricket...
This time the expert opinion.

A mate of mine who really knows his cricket shared with me his tips for top wicket taker. The odds are so good, that I think you would be advised to make a small punt just in case. Dave's top tip is Ian Harvey, currently at 33-1 with Ladbrokes, on the basis that he's in good form, has already taken a few wickets and his ability to swing the ball can be maximised using the dewy conditions and the atmospheric conditions in the day-night matches. May be worth trying to negotiate odds for an each way on the top two or three wicket takers.

Second favourite is Vaas, who has also started well and is currently at 16-1 with Ladbrokes, a safer bet perhaps, but still good value. He also told me to steer clear of Glen McGrath because of his dicky back, but he can't be right about everything!

Gozzer (14 Feb 03) Weekend Football...
So this is it, punters and footie followers, my last set of tips before my extended stay abroad. If you'd followed my tips this season faithfully, you too would be a few quid up. Lets see how badly I can damage that sum this weekend.

The FA Cup has thrown up no obvious wins at reasonable odds, so its straight into the standard League fare, via Corals for the Saturday predictions:

I think that the long journey down to Devon will defeat Tranmere, before Plymouth do at 5/6. Both sides need the points to convince their fans that the play-offs are still a realistic aim, but Argyle are strong at home.

Dropping down into Div 3, Bury may be dour, but they are undeniably effective on the whole. Their chances are certainly enhanced when you consider that the visitors are notorious bad trailers Orient. I go for a 8/13 home win. Don't put your house on it, but I believe that the most likely score is 1-0. Staying in the basement, I also fancy Oxford to, for once, use their home advantage to overcome notorious poor trailers Carlisle at 4/6. With Oxford you never can tell, but with Carlisle you nearly always can. Lastly in this section I reckon Wrexham are good for a home win against not necessarily bad trailers Southend at 10/11. The Dragons are a fine footballing outfit this season and like a good playing surface. Their home record is by no means outstanding, but if promotion is a serious aim, this is the sort of match where a draw won't do.

In Scotland on Saturday, I can't see Celtic slipping up again at lowly Motherwell, making the 2/7 odds just tempting enough. What on earth have those lower table sides got to play for when relegation will effectively be barred this season? Its going to be very dull north of the border with a two horse race at the top and virtually nothing else to play for.

Of the Sunday fixtures, the one which most leaps out is Fulham v Burnley. The gap in class should tell and the 1/2 odds for a home win look like relatively good value.

So that's it. My six tips in a hectic and mixed schedule. I will be at the basement 6 pointer hoping against hope that Exeter can do the double over Boston, like they did over their other relegation rivals, Carlisle. So, its my last chance this season to say COME ON YOU REDS!

Gozzer (07 Feb 03) Weekend Football...
For my penultimate selection of this season, prior to my move abroad, I present six predictions for your consideration, one each from the Prem, Divs One and Two and the SPL and two from my specialist division, no. 3.

Taking them in the order on the Corals coupon, the first is very tempting: Spurs are strong at home, while Sunderland are poor everywhere. Although the Black Cats (is that really still their nickname?) are potential spoilers, I think the odds of 4/9 are worth the punt. The odds are better for a Norwich win at hapless Sheff Wed at 6/4, but I feel this is almost as strong a possibility as the Spurs match.

Regular readers of this column will know that I fancy Cardiff to put some form together and get promoted automatically this season. Barnsley shouldn't stand in their way to any significant extent at 4/9.

In Div 3 there are two strong candidates for home wins: Cambridge are a real force at the Abbey, while Shrewsbury haven't looked too impressive away from home. I take a home win at 8/11. Corals offer 4/7 on a home win for Southend over Bristol Rovers. The home side, while looking distinctly average this campaign have won three on the spin at home and Rovers are in complete disarray after throwing their match against Carlisle away last week. With the pressure mounting, time will tell how the Gas respond, but I don't fancy their chances on Saturday.

No great odds so far and you may do well to shop around for some better ones. Dunfermline vs Rangers does not buck the trend unless you go for a home win at 8-1. The away win at 2/7 is my tip, however, as a makeweight. Apparently this match is live on Setanta, whatever that means...

Gozzer (27 Jan 03) Excuses excuses...
Welcome to my nightmare... My worst ever attempt at the fixed odds. I wish I hadn't shared it, but its too late now. Lets forget about the others and concentrate on what went right: Thank you Norwich for the last minute winner against Dagenham and Redbridge. Thanks also to Clyde for their narrow win at Gretna. At least one of my seven away wins came in. Don't think I'll try that again for a while.

Gozzer (24 Jan 03) Weekend Football...
Ahh the magic of the Cup, isn't it? Davids knocked out by Goliaths... Poor odds from the bookies... Pitches like the Somme... Shattered dreams of the Wembley Towers... Shattered Towers... Wrecking balls... Ken Bates errrrrr...

And a surfeit of away wins from this tipster. Yes this week only I'm going crazy! 8 tips, 7 away wins and even a delve into the early rounds of the Scottish Cup. I'm not intending to make any money, merely to provide food for thought.

The biggest problem when making predictions in the Cup isn't the state of the pitches, its the state of the managers' minds: Arsene Wenger has been talking about 'shadow teams' and its not even the likes of secret police funded Dinamo Bucharest... its Arsenal! Sir A F has been talking about taking the Cups seriously this season - so Man Utd could play a second rather than a third team. We just don't know, so we have to guess.

I reckon that Liverpool are having another of those Cup years and will be too strong for Palace at Selhurst at 8/13 with Ladbrokes. It will be tough, but Leeds have enough players left to beat the Gills at Priestfield first time at 8/11. For contrast, I'm going for a low odds home banker in Norwich to beat Dag & Red at 2/7. As an Exeter City fan, I can't forget the way the Daggers put City out of the Cup last season. Their win over Plymouth this time helped, but its not enough to dispel the bad memories. Come on Norwich. One last dip into the Cup and back to the away wins: I fancy Coventry to win at a generous 8/11 at plodding Rochdale, who have hardly matched their recent standards in Div 3.

Into Div 2, I can see Cardiff piling on the points from now to the end of the season with no Cup distractions, starting with a 8/11 win at Huddersfield. Same goes for Wigan, rated at 10/11 for a win at Swindon.

North of the border, for some reason, I fancy Clyde to win at new boys Gretna at 8/13 and Aberdeen to win at the same odds at Q o S. You never know, it might just happen.

Gozzer (11 Jan 03) Weekend Football...
My tip for you this weekend is wrap up warm and avoid the Bookies. There are few easy predictions in the selection and coupled with the fact that many matches have been called off and many more are likely to join them, it's pointless predicting anything. Try again when it's warmer.

Simon (22 Dec 02) NFL...
After a slow few weeks in the NFL betting-wise, it looks as if we have a live possibility this weekend.

Firstly, William Hill are offering Evens on Tennessee (-3) overcoming divisional rivals Jacksonville. The Jaguars may be the home team, but they're out of the playoff race and look second best on paper to the Titans who need to keep winning. A -3 handicap against the visitors is worth taking at Evens.

A word of caution. I was considering backing Kansas City at -1.5 to overcome rivals San Diego, but they've got several key players out and I won't be risking any money.

Simon (21 Dec 02) Premiership Football...
It's been very difficult to get excited about Premiership betting in the last few months. There just doesn't seem to be a great deal of value about. This weekend seems to be no exception, although there is one game that might offer something...

Newcastle have a great home record and today face a Fulham team that are struggling for form - especially away from there temporary 'home'. It's difficult to make a case for Fulham in this one. Most bookies seem to offering 8/15 for a Newcastle win, but you might do better if you shop around. Oddschecker is a useful - and free! - tool.

Gozzer (15 Dec 02) Excuses excuses...
And again, two this week:

If I had known that Bradford were avoiding a record run of 8 straight defeats, I wouldn't have backed Forest to win there. That backs to the wall situation would have made an away win harder, but the home win was still a surprise.

Not as surprising as Celtic slipping up at Killie. My surefire odds boost really bit back. Apparently that was the fifth non-Old Firm point dropped this season. That statistic I heard on the radio really puts the SPL two-horse race into perspective: I mean who would look at things in a similar way this side of the border?

That's it from me for this year. I might just squeeze in a quick look at how my Division 3 promotion tips are going before Christmas... as I write, my two top tips are first and second, while Bristol Rovers are just off the bottom!

Gozzer (13 Dec 02) Weekend Football...
Little of value or much inspiration this week as the top two divisions seem to be the reverse of those less than a month ago. Anyway, I have picked 5 in the Nationwide and one north of the border for a boost. The Ed probably has the Prem covered, but I think there's no obvious winners there.

Div One
Forest to win at Bratfud at 11/10. Good value at Ladbrokes Leicester to beat Millwall at 4/6. Possible grudge match after Leics messed up the earlier meeting by competing with only 10 men.

Div Two
Brentford should be too strong for Chesterfield at home. 4/5 is good enough for a punt Crewe are going too well for Barnsley to put up enough resistance. Home win at 4/7.

Div Three
Boston have had their purple patch and now look like good bets for the drop (please - now its a good time for some team other than Exeter to similarly lose form and hope). I think a trip to the winter delights of Southend will offer no solace and at 4/5 for a home win, its worth backing.

Scotland
The odds aren't great, but I am confident that Celtic won't slip up at Killie. Assuming everything else comes up, it will add a little value (famous last words, of course).

Good luck and Happy Christmas.

Gozzer (09 Dec 02) Excuses excuses...
Ahh, the old form returns: 6 tips, 2 failures. Rather than do the typical thing and take the 'Liverpool Lose. What can be going wrong at Anfield?' line, I would just like to recognise Charlton Athletic's fine victory against the odds on Saturday and wish them the best of luck until they entertain Exeter City in the New Year. Happy Christmas Charlton and please, please, please have a Complacent New Year.

As for the other one: Well done Farnborough, you won away at Southport, but it didn't really matter as the damage was done.

And finally: Well done City. COME ON YOU REDS.

Gozzer (07 Dec 02) Weekend Football...
The weather is getting colder. Its almost time to put down a few more selections to keep your odds up as some of the games may fall foul of the weather, but don't be tempted just yet. I'm hoping to boost my chances of winning at least something by letting the weather weed out my dodgier selections, while also hoping to maintain my streak of picking 12 out of 13 results over the last fortnight. No of course it won't last and Corals will be taking my stake this time.

Prem
Liverpool should get back on track at Charlton at a stingy 5-6. Come on Corals it's an away match!

The Cup
Oh dear - dodgy pitches, dodgy mismatches, dodgy refereeing decisions and the rewards of an away tie at Man Utd or the booby prize of an away tie at Wimbledon in front of a Sunday League crowd. In form Crewe should take the honours at home to Mansfield at 4-9
I also fancy Darlo to overcome Stevenage. The Conference side are having an appalling season and this is reflected in the odds of 2-5
Mulit-millionaire Cardiff are at worse odds (are there worse odds?) at Margate, but will do the job at 4-11
Better odds are offered for the all-Conference clash Southport v Farnborough. I fancy the home side at 8-11.
In form Wigan should continue their good run at 4-6 at the expense of Luton.

6 tips and with a little luck from the weather I might get the right 4 or 5 correct and make a small sum. There is sure to be better value elsewhere. I'll be giving Corals a miss for a while after this week.

Simon (07 Dec 02) Premiership Football...
I usually avoid speculating on the big televised games, but this time I'm tempted to back Arsenal at 7/4 with Hills to beat Man Utd. Man Utd may appear to have turned the corner, but without Keane and Beckham they aren't as good as their North London rivals.

Gozzer (01 Dec 02) Excuses excuses...
Normal service has been resumed, however, I only have the one excuse this time (out of six). Notts County got a late(ish) equaliser at Blackpool to mess up my coupon, which admittedly was peppered with narrow wins. A miss is as good as a mile.

Oh well...

Simon (30 Nov 02) Premiership Football...
No actual selections this weekend as none of the opportunities presented take my speculative fancy.

However, thought I'd take the time to mention a little project I'm working on.

There are lots of systems out there that people claim can predict the outcome of matches. As well as the fully fledged 'systems', there are lots of little trends and patterns that people spot that are touted as great ways to get one step ahead of the bookmakers.

Personally I'm far from convinced that it's possible to come up with an effective system for beating the odds. Aside from the fact that there are so many variables to consider, any system that even hints at being effective at predicting results and therefore acquires many devotees, would instantly cause the bookmakers to shift prices in response to demand, thereby rendering itself ineffective over time.

I feel that a better approach might be an analysis' that focuses on prices rather than on predicting results. The idea being that you monitor prices over time to gain an understanding of how different situations are priced. This should, in due course, put you in a position to spot, and take advantage of, any price anomalies.

I've been working on such an analysis. I'm going to need quite a bit of data before I can start drawing meaningful conclusions - watch this space for the results!

Gozzer (29 Nov 02) Weekend Football...
After last week's groundbreaking WIN, you would do best to ignore these tips as reality is bound to rear its ugly head again. Just in case it doesn't, my money will be going to Ladbrokes again.

Prem
The Arse should sit on the Villa to make the headline writer's day at 2/5

Div One
Leicester should be good enough to recover their form with a win at Grimsby at Evens Millwall should see off wageless and demoralised Bradford at 4/7
After last week's 5 goal romp, I'm sticking with the Blades to turn over the Palace at 10/11

Div Two
I take Blackpool to continue Notts County's miserable run at 4/6

Div Three
Rushden are almost top, Bristol Rovers are almost bottom. Rushden are at home. Rushden should win at 2/5

...and that's it. Best of luck to you - I used my own luck up last week.

Gozzer (24 Nov 02) Success!...
About time too. At odds of 44 and a bit to 1, I'm up for the season (and most of last one too!)

Don't expect me to maintain it!

Gozzer (23 Nov 02) Weekend Football...
Money to give away? Here's a novel idea, just send it in to SportSpec, don't involve the bookies at all. Of course I'm supposed to concentrate on the standard route of wallet-bookies-drain, so this week's beneficiaries will be Ladbrokes.

Div One
Sheff U to win at hard up Bratfud 11/8
The Palace to overcome the Grimsby 4/7
Leicester to maintain their challenge at the expense of tricky Rotherham 1/2
Preston to beat rising Brighton (maybe) 8/11

Div Two
Contenders Cardiff and Crewe to see off visiting Chesterfield and improving Blackpool at 4/9 and 4/6 respectively
The Basement Hull to thrash Boston in the Lincs derby (and the last one at Boothferry Park) 4/7
Scunny to continue the misery for Swansea 4/7

Seven tips (I'm chickening out on Preston), no hope. I hope you have better luck with your infinitely better selections. Next time I will try to limit myself to no more than 4 tips - that is what got me out of my last losing streak and it was nothing like as long as the current one, which has been going as long as I've written this column!

Simon (23 Nov 02) Premiership Football...
Just the one bet today: Liverpool to win at Fulham - Evens with Totalbet.

Gozzer (18 Nov 02) Excuses excuses...
Back to the old form, two wrong out of however many I pick. No problems in the Cup, but Div 1 went awry. On Saturday I blamed Brian Deane for getting himself sent off early for Leicester. A man down, their two goal lead was pegged back and then Muzzy Izzett missed a late pen.

Even if he had scored from the spot, Ipswich contrived to spoil things by winning at Watford. Oh well, its not as if I was in any way confident...

Simon (10 Nov 02) NFL...
The following matches (with possible selections in bold) are the ones that look like possible money spinners this week:

Cleveland v Cincinnati (+3.5)
Buffalo (+3.5) v Kansas City
Pittsburgh (-3) v Tennessee
NY Jets v Detroit (+3)
Denver (-4.5) v Seattle

The pick of these seem to be the two favourites - Pittsburgh and Denver - and that's where my money will be going. Pittsburgh and their opponents Tennessee have both won four straight, but it's the Steelers who are generally considered to be the better team. The Titans have home advantage, but the Steelers have a positive record on the road and should win by more than a field goal.

Denver, despite their loss last week to the Raiders, should be too good in all aspects of the game for Seattle. Expect the Broncos to easily beat the 4.5 point spread.

Gozzer (15 Nov 02) Weekend Football...
Now that I have settled on the fact that I am never going to win anything ever again on the fixed odds, I am free! I can tip whatever I like. I know that I am going to lose my stake. There should be no more frustration.

This week I will be donating a small sum to Ladbrokes. A sum no larger than I donated to Children in Need. In return for this donation, I get to put a few marks on the form marked Weekend Football. It means nothing more than that: I'm just going to share with you what those marks are and where they go:

Division One
I think that Leicester will win at Millwall, despite the absence of away fans 11/8 Norwich should be too strong for Palace 4/5 Ditto Forest v Bradford 4/9 Ditto Watford v Ipswich 10/11

FA Cup
The pitch is a great leveller, unless its a non-pitch, then its a great tilter. On that basis I expect Bournemouth to beat Donny 4/6 Shrewsbury to beat Stafford at 8/15 Stockport to beat St Albans at 2/5 Don't back these winners.

Don't back losers. Tune in next week for more creative ways to waste money...

Simon (10 Nov 02) NFL...
Three games are in the running for consideration this week.

First up are Cincinnati - 5.5 point underdogs at Baltimore. The Bengals got their first win last week and so should come into this game with a little more confidence. They meet a Baltimore team that's coming off of two losses and who will be missing some important players through injury. The match-ups don't look too bad for Cincy. I feel there's a good chance of an upset.

Secondly I like New Orleans, 4.5 point favourites over Carolina. After winning their first three, the Panthers have now lost five in a row. They find scoring points tough, and although they get Peete back at QB this week their visitors should still win this one by at least a TD.

Finally I like Washington as 3 point underdogs at Jacksonville. Washington have won their last two; Jacksonville have lost four straight. The Redskins have only lost to decent teams and they may still be playoff contenders. This game seems like a 50/50 to me, so as 3 point underdogs the Redskins may offer value.

Now, having outlined three options, I have to say that I'm not sold enough on any of them to commit my money. However, if any of you feel more strongly that I do, please feel free to use these thoughts to bolster your convictions. Good luck!

Gozzer (10 Nov 02) Excuses excuses...
I am vindicated. I told you it was a waste of money following my tips. Of course, for a while it looked like it was more a case of reverse psychology. Leaving St James Park in low spirits after seeing Exeter City toss away a well worked lead to take nothing from table-topping Hartlepool, I heard the Div 3 final scores: 2/2, not bad. Then came the Prem scores: 3/3, even better. There might be some consolation.

Later on I found that Crewe won, but of course the other Div 2 scores all went against me. Luton couldn't find the net v Vale, the Notts derby was a highly predictable score draw and QPR simply slumped at home to Northampton.

But worse than all of that was still that 5 minutes of madness in the Exeter defence which undermined a good overall team performance which deserved at least a point...

Simon (09 Nov 02) Premiership Football...
It has to be said that I'm not having a great deal of success with Premiership football at the moment - in stark contrast to my NFL record. Apart from the early weeks, there doesn't seem to have been much value around so far this season.

Hopefully that will change this weekend. I'm putting my money squarely behind the blue side of Stanley Park as the Toffees take on Charlton. Everton are going for four straight wins for the first time in the Premiership and are full of confidence. 4/6 with Hills is the price.

Gozzer (09 Nov 02) Weekend Football...
In case you are interested in what I will be wasting my money on this weekend, after a week's break, read on...

Prices from Corals, as I am very much off Will Hills at the moment, for non-gambling reasons. These are all predicted home wins:

Prem
Chelsea to beat Brum at 4/9

Div 2
Crewe to beat Brentford at evens Luton to beat Port Vale at 4/5 and same odds on a home win in the Nottinghamshire derby as Notts County take on Mansfield QPR to maintain their run at the expense of the Cobblers at 4/7

Div 3
R & D to maintain their promotion home form against Darlo at 4/7 Lastly the links derby with Scunny to beat new boys Boston at 8/11. I saw Boston play last week and they were abject and as woeful a side as I have seen in years. So following my usual poor judgement, you might like to consider backing the Pilgrims for an away win at 10/3.

Whatever, I hope you have more luck than I usually have!

Simon (03 Nov 02) NFL...
I guess I'm on a roll! Two more successes last week take my tally of consecutive winning NFL handicap bets to seven. Can I continue the sequence? We'll see...

Just one selection this week. The Washington Redskins travel to Seattle in a game that won't have much of an impact on the playoff picture as both these teams are .500 performers at best. The game is finely balanced and, as seems to be established practice in such circumstances, the bookies give Seattle (the home team) the 3 point edge. I favour the 'Skins however. The Seahawks cannot stop the run, and if the 'Skins control possession they could win this one more comfortably than might be expected. Given their underdog status they are well worth backing.

Simon (02 Nov 02) Boxing...
Later tonight Johnny Tapia takes on Marco Antonio Barrera at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. The fight may not be for a title, but this clash of two boxing greats has been eagerly anticipated for some time.

The fight should be a fine spectacle, but the result isn't really in doubt. Barrera may not have looked his normal self in his recent rematch with Morales, but he's got the edge on the older Tapia in all departments. Tapia's chin and determination will almost certainly take the fight the distance, but expect a comfortable win for Barrera. BlueSq are offering an excellent 2/9 for Barrera - excellent when you consider that Hills are offering 1/8.

Simon (02 Nov 02) Premiership Football...
Perhaps the most significant football news of the week was being made in the offices of the FA rather than on the playing fields of Europe. The Guardian has an interesting piece today - well worth a look.

When betting on this week's Premiership matches, check out the bettingzone at sportinglife.com. I suggest this on the basis of novelty value: they are recommending Saints to beat Man Utd at 9/1. As a Southampton fan myself I steer clear of matches involving the Saints, and so pass no comment on the credibility of the selection, however it may be one of the few instances in any of our lifetimes when a respected site such as sportinglife offers up such a tip. The betting equivalent of a visit from Halley's Comet.

So where's my money going this weekend? There's not a great deal of value to be had, but I've narrowed down one selection: Blackburn to beat 'Villa at 4/5 with Totalbet. Blackburn are playing well and will be eager to put their loss to Celtic behind them by beating the somewhat less intimidating midlanders. Aston Villa's draw at Old Trafford won't herald a change of fortune for Villa - they've scored just once in their last four games, and although they don't concede many goals I expect a narrow Blackburn victory.

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